Croatia’s Qualification Requires a European Effort, Last Time This Happened Was for China’s National Team

On June 25th, in the last round of Group B of the European Championship, Croatia was held to a 1-1 draw by Italy, finishing with only two points from two draws and one loss, leaving their qualification hopes hanging by a theoretical thread.

If Croatia wishes to advance, they must become one of the four best third-placed teams, a daunting task. The group stage of Group A has already concluded, and Hungary, as the third team, has secured three points, surpassing Croatia. In Group D, the current third-placed Austria also has three points, ahead of Croatia. In Group E, all four teams have three points, ensuring that the third-placed team will outperform Croatia.

In Group C, Denmark (two draws), Slovenia (two draws), and Serbia (one draw, one loss) are the key. For Croatia to overtake the third spot, England needs to defeat Slovenia by at least three goals, while simultaneously Serbia loses to Denmark by at least three goals; or England defeats Slovenia by at least three goals and Denmark triumphs over Serbia. Either scenario would enable Croatia to surpass the third team in Group C.

In Group F, the competitors for Croatia are the Czech Republic (one point) and Georgia (one point). Croatia’s qualification would require Portugal to beat Georgia and Turkey to defeat the Czech Republic to ensure Croatia overtakes these two teams.

Croatia’s situation is dire, needing to finish above the third-place teams in both Group C and Group F for qualification, requiring a collective effort from half of Europe. The last time a team was rescued in such a manner was China’s national team in the 2016 Asian Zone’s 40-team Qualifiers, where they surprisingly advanced under similarly stringent conditions.

Croatia’s Qualification Criteria (all four must be met):

1. Georgia loses

2. Czech Republic loses

3. Serbia loses or Denmark loses by three goals

4. Slovenia loses by three goals or more