UEFA Euro Preview: Italy’s Clear Psychological Edge, Can Albania Cause an Upset?

On the morning of June 16 at 3:00 AM, in the first round of Group B matches in the European Championship, defending champions Italy will face Albania. The Azzurri, plagued by injuries and an incomplete squad, are set to face a tough battle, while Albania enters the tournament with less pressure.

Currently ranked 9th in the world, Italy is a two-time European champion. Three years ago, they triumphed, showcasing the allure of team football. However, the country’s football has experienced a talent gap and consecutive failures to qualify for the World Cup have had a significant impact.

In this edition of the Euros, Italy has approached the tournament with modest expectations. Their 26-player squad has a total value of €705 million, ranking sixth among the 24 teams, behind England, France, Portugal, Spain, and the Netherlands. Both José Mourinho and Michael Ballack have expressed doubts about Italy’s chances of repeating as champions.

The skepticism surrounding Italy is understandable, given their absence from the last two World Cups and the decline of Serie A. Without the likes of Baggio, Totti, and Pirlo leading the way, winning the title seems challenging. Compounding matters, Italy has been hit by injuries, with key players like Acerbi, Zaniolo, and Spinazzola already ruled out of the tournament.

Leading up to the competition, Italy’s injury concerns persist, with central midfielder Fagioli and Barella just returning to training, leaving their availability uncertain. Despite this, the team has shown decent form in their last 10 games, securing six victories, three draws, and one defeat – a 1-3 loss to England away from home.

Albania, currently ranked 66th in the FIFA rankings, is the second-lowest ranked team in the Euros, only higher than Georgia at 75th. Returning to the final stage after eight years, they carry no significant burden. In their last 10 fixtures, Albania has recorded five wins, three draws, and two losses.

In their past four encounters, Italy has emerged victorious against Albania, scoring seven goals while conceding only one, keeping clean sheets on three occasions, thus holding a noticeable psychological advantage. Nevertheless, despite their average profile on paper, Albania boasts players active in top European leagues, including Broja, Arslani, Berisha, Hysaj, Ismajli, Kumbulla, and Gjasula, who are familiar with Italian football. This familiarity could allow them to devise targeted strategies to stifle Italy, potentially creating opportunities for an upset.

It’s worth noting that Italy is in a group considered a “group of death.” With Spain and Croatia facing each other in their opening match, Italy will be keen to secure a victory against the seemingly weaker Albania, as the subsequent fixtures against stronger opponents will likely pose more difficulties.

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